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AEI report: Real chance current efforts to stop Iran will fail

By Missing Peace

 

Khamenei during meeting with IRGC veterans

 

The Israeli news site YNET ran a story about a new report from the  American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) that deals with the Iranian nuclear program. 

According to the YNET report Iran could have a nuclear weapon before 2013. 

The AEI report furthermore suggests that ” there is a real chance that Western efforts to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon will fail,”

The AEI, a conservative Washington think-tank, is set to release its report, titled “Containing and Deterring a Nuclear Iran,” later on Tuesday.

Missing Peace obtained the report and publishes it here

The report discusses deterrence and containment as ‘the least bad choice’ and focuses on ways to deter Iran. At the same time the think tank concludes that even without a nuclear weapon Iran is difficult to deter; the current de facto deterrence does not prevent Iran from isolated acts of military aggression or aggression by Iranian proxies.

Containing and deterring was part of the MAD (Mutual Anticipated Destruction) doctrine during the Cold War. 

It would be a fatal mistake however, to believe MAD will work in case of Iran.

The regime in Iran sacrificed hundreds of thousands of children during the Iraq-Iran war and was largely responsible for a suicide bombing campaign in Iraq that left hundreds of thousands dead.

Did the Soviet Union ever establish ‘estesh hadiyun’ (martyrdom seekers) brigades in order to protect its nuclear program?  Iran has more than forty thousand suicide bombers ready to attack identified Western targets in anticipation of a confrontation over its nuclear program.

Furthermore the Iranian regime is under influence of a apocalyptic religious doctrine that envisions a great upheaval in the world before the coming of the Shia messiah Mahdi.

Just last Sunday Ahmadinejad once again referred to this doctrine when he addressed a number of religious elites in Iran.

He said: “the world should change is a definite issue; everyone holds this belief and is waiting for it.” He reiterated that the world was on the verge of a great development, and said that recent events and uprisings in regional and Western countries herald a new era that will be void of the tyranny of the world arrogant powers”.

Another serious flaw in this containing and deterring theory, is that it doesn’t take in account the nuclear arms race in the Middle East that will start the moment Iran will have a nuclear weapon. It is widely known that in that case Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey will seek their own nuclear bomb.

The AEI report concludes: “Iran remains the leading sponsor of international terrorism, a proliferator of missiles and nuclear materials, a regional aggressor, and an abuser of human rights. We cannot afford to risk the security of future generations on a policy of containment”

“Deterrence and containment are the default mode for the people who are not up for going to war, but we wanted to point out that this was not a cheap or easy alternative, which is the way a lot of people make it sound,” AEI expert Tom Donnelly said.